Bob Edmonson's Dallas TX Property Values Blog: Dallas Homes Sales Stats for January

Let's begin by re-stating that January is historically the slowest month of the year for home sales in Dallas. Whew! Glad that's out of the way. The home-sales business bottoms out in January and then begins its steady climb into the Spring Market, typically peaking in June. This year, January has proven to be even slower than last year, which should come as no surprise. The new year didn't change the sales pattern, at least not yet. We still have sales below year ago totals in all but a few submarkets. While we sense the slumbering market here, imagine the condition in other cities. After all, Dallas is the best positioned major city in the country to avoid a downturn, according to stories in the Allman-Ac (an Allie Beth Allman publication), which I posted in my blog on Feb 3.

We seem to be getting hit from all directions with news stories about the real estate industry. Congress is determined to get its nose in it, and even some presidential candidates are proposing quick "fixes" to the foreclosure problem and mortgage industry. Oh, if they would just stay out of it!! It was Congress that leaned on the mortgage industry to make the American dream of homeownership available to more of our citizens, which resulted in some citizens getting mortgages they couldn't afford. But before you get me started...

Dallas saw overall home sales in January fall 16% from year ago levels. We've been in this double-digit decline mode for several months now. What is interesting this month is that the declines occurred in almost all price points, not just the lower priced homes. If you scroll down to the bottom of this report, you will see what I mean. In months past, I wrote that the softness in sales was occurring with homes priced below $200,000 (which is still above Dallas' median average sales price). We had seen steady gains month-to-month in the sales of homes and condos priced above $200,000, and we thought we had two Dallases (sorry for the political pun--I'm in that mood). However, in January, only homes and condos priced $1,000,000 and above continued to show gains and immunity to the softness in sales. Yet it is too early to call this a trend. The percentage changes in single family home sales by price point look extreme, as do the months inventory figures, but we are working with small numbers of sales in January. Let's see how things go in February and March before we declare a trend in 2008.

In the Uptown market, which includes Victory and the new and pricey condos there, sales were down double digits but the average sales price was up 46% from Jan, 07. This certainly reflects the focus on condo sales in the newer, expensive buildings in this submarket. In East Dallas and Northeast Dallas (the M Streets, Lakewood and Lake Highlands), we can cheerfully report an increase in the number of home sales in January versus year ago. But in most markets, it is taking longer to sell, with the Days On Market numbers increasingly higher. Before you get too worried about this, in the same Allman-Ac I referred to above, Dallas was among the best markets in the country for unsold inventory, with a DOM in the 80-day range.

Once again, we are thankful for a good local and state economy, which is enabling our area to withstand deeper corrections happening elsewhere. All markets, including housing markets, have cycles. It's the natural order of things!

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 1%, DOM 88, up 9%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 1%, DOM 88, up 9%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price up 46%, DOM 114, up 36%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price up 46%, DOM 114, up 36%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales down 7%, avg price down 8%, DOM 90, up 27%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 7%, avg price down 8%, DOM 90, up 27%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales up 1%, avg price down 1%, DOM 80, up 4%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales up 1%, avg price down 1%, DOM 80, up 4%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price down 7%, DOM 91, up 25%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price down 7%, DOM 91, up 25%.

Far North Dallas (North of LBJ):
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales down 22%, avg price unchanged, DOM 85, up 37%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 22%, avg price unchanged, DOM 85, up 37%.

Northwest Dallas:
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales down 40%, avg price up 14%, DOM 92, up 19%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 40%, avg price up 14%, DOM 92, up 19%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales up 21%, avg price up 16%, DOM 61, up 7%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales up 21%, avg price up 16%, DOM 61, up 7%.

Plano:
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales down 9%, avg price unchanged, DOM 80, up 33%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 9%, avg price unchanged, DOM 80, up 33%.

Frisco:
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales down 5%, avg price down 7%, DOM 99, up 21%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 5%, avg price down 7%, DOM 99, up 21%.

Richardson:
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales down 28%, avg price down 19%, DOM 71, up 18%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 7%, avg price up 2%, DOM 68, down 8%.

Southlake:
Jan 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price unchanged, DOM 58, down 36%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price unchanged, DOM 58, down 36%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:

$200-299K (14.4% of sales): down 16%, 11 months inventory
$300-399K (5.8% of sales): down 11%, 14 months inventory
$400-499K (2.6% of sales): down 9%, 17 months inventory
$500-599K (1.2% of sales): down 17%, 21 months inventory
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): down 40%, 23 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 12%, 26 months inventory
$800-899K (0.2% of sales): down 17%, 42 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 44%, 26 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): up 2%, 28 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.

$200-299K (15.2% of sales): 40 units vs 52 units year ago, 17 months inventory
$300-399K (4.9% of sales): 13 units vs 19 units year ago, 34 months
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): 7 units vs 11 units year ago, 27 months
$500-599K (1.5% of sales): 4 units vs 2 units year ago, 39 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 2 units vs 2 units year ago, 38 months
$700-799K (0.8% of sales): 2 units vs 2 units year ago, 28 months
$800-899K (0.8% of sales): 2 units vs 2 units year ago, 22 months
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): 1 units vs 1 year ago, 29 months
$1MM + (1.1% of sales): 3 units vs 1 year ago, 36 months

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Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
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Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate