Bob Edmonson's Dallas TX Property Values Blog: December 2006

It looks like that slide in average sales price for homes sold in Park Cities last month was an aberation. Last month I mentioned average sales price was down 17% there, but it rebounded nicely in November, up 19% vs November, 2005. Back to normal, thank goodness. The Park Cities is probably our bell weather market for indication of a healthy real estate market in the Dallas area. It is tiny compared to the overall area, but Park Cities has historically had the strongest, steadiest price appreciation in our metro area. If Dallas were to pattern itself after the U.S. cities which experienced superhot price increases now turning into supercold price declines, it would be reflected in Park Cities. The fact that average sales price is up 18% this year (11 months) vs last year is reassuring. While unit volume is down 9% there, prices are holding up just fine. Overall, the average sales price of home sold is up 4% for the first 11 months, running at DFW's normal pace. Sales for the year are up 3%.

The Uptown/Downtown/Turtle Creek market also rebounded in November from an unusually sharp sales decline in October. This is also a very good sign, as we don't want to see negative trends started. This market area has the best year-to-date sales, up 7% for the year, with average sales price up 2%. This market area has a lot of new condominium construction coming on stream now and in the months ahead. The general concensus is that this growth will outstrip demand in the short term, and if this theory is correct, prices will likely be held in check in much of 2007. This will be an exciting year for the downtown/uptown area.

Looking at the other markets (below), average sales price is up anywhere from 3% to 15%. In none of the markets I track is the average sales price down for the year. Yes, we could stand to see a reversal in the homes sales figures in many of these markets, but with prices holding up, we should end the year with confidence in the underlying strength of the Dallas real estate market.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales down 7%, avg price unchanged, DOM 71, down 1%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales up 3%, avg price up 4%, DOM 69, down 2%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales up 13%, avg price up 4%, DOM 83, down 14%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales up 7%, avg price up 2%, DOM 82, down 5%.

Highland Park and University Park, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales down 17%, avg price up 19%, DOM 53, down 17%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales down 9%, avg price up 18%, DOM 60, up 2%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales unchanged, avg price up 1%, DOM 73, up 12%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales down 1%, avg price up 8%, DOM 64, unchanged.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales down 19%, avg price up 12%, DOM 87, up 30%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales down 11%, avg price up 15%, DOM 65, down 8%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales up 5%, avg price up 1%, DOM 68, up 10%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales up 1%, avg price up 7%, DOM 60, up 9%.

Northwest Dallas:

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales up 18%, avg price up 2%, DOM 70, up 36%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales up 2%, avg price up 6%, DOM 64, up 7%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales up 22%, avg price up 16%, DOM 44, down 37%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales down 5%, avg price up 3%, DOM 50, down 7%.

Plano:

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales down 22%, avg price up 5%, DOM 53, down 7%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales down 5%, avg price unchanged, DOM 50, down 7%.

Frisco:

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales down 22%, avg price up 9%, DOM 69, up 15%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales down 1%, avg price up 7%, DOM 62, down 10%.

Richardson:

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales down 20%, avg price up 9%, DOM 45, down 22%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales down 5%, avg price unchanged, DOM 53, down 5%.

Southlake:

Nov 06 vs 05: Sales down 7%, avg price down 5%, DOM 72, up 9%.
YTD 06 vs 05: Sales down 16%, avg price up 7%, DOM 59, up 7%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2006 vs 2005:
$200-299K (15.9% of sales): up 6%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.2% of sales): up 11%, 7 months inventory
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): up 17%, 9 months inventory
$500-599K (1.2% of sales): up 11%, 10 months inventory
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): up 7%, 11 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): up 4%, 13 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): up 22%, 12 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): unchanged, 14 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.9% of sales): up 21%, 16 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2006 vs 2005. Some builders do not report their sales in MLS--this list represents MLS reported sales only (as does this entire report).

$200-299K (10.5% of sales): 564 units vs 524 units year ago, 12 months inventory
$300-399K (5.6% of sales): 317 units vs 245 units year ago, 14 months
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): 155 units vs 112 units year ago, 15 months
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): 73 units vs 65 year ago, 16 months
$600-699K (0.5% of sales): 26 units vs 23 year ago, 30 months
$700-799K (0.4% of sales): 21 units vs 12 year ago, 25 months
$800-899K (0.1% of sales): 6 units vs 12 year ago, 40 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 6 units vs 5 year ago, 29 months
$1MM + (0.3% of sales): 18 unit vs 10 year ago, 56 months

Bob and Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Associates
214-563-8540

Oh, by the way, if you know someone who is planning to buy or sell a home and would appreciate the service I provide, please send me their name and number, and I will gladly follow up with them!