Bob Edmonson's Dallas TX Property Values Blog: July 2007

June was not a pretty month in the greater Dallas area, with sales off 15% from the same month a year ago. For the year, the Dallas market is down 6%. Average sales price continues to be in positive territory, plugging along at a 5% increase for the year to date. Looking at the sales by price point, this steeper-than-expected sales slump for June may be explained in the $200K to $299K price range. This price range accounts for over 16% of Dallas home sales, and it has shown increasing weakness over the last several months, dropping into negative territory for the first time in May. Sales are now off 5% for the year in this price range, which means the weakness we have historically seen in the lower price points has reached a little higher now, into the $200K's. While I don't address the lower price ranges in this letter in detail, fully 50% of sales in the Dallas area are of homes in the $90K to $299K price range, and sales in this wide range are down double digits. Not until you reach the $300K's, and in each segment above this level, do we see sales increases year over year. Despite the help of the more affluent home buyer, these folks just couldn't carry the entire load--hence, another month of negative sales volume.

Not all is lackluster! Northwest Dallas and Southlake are experiencing a genuine resurgence this year. Uptown is up double digits in sales for the year, continuing a long and steady trend. Even Richardson is bouncing back, with a couple of strong back-to-back months, almost enough to put them in positive sales territory for the year. Northwest Dallas is seen as the "value" market right now, with buyers more than willing to jump across Midway Road to add just a few minutes to their commute in return for a bigger bang for their buck. Homes in this market have not seen a lot of interior updating though, but this is changing and will change even more with the new surge in buying interest. Southlake is coming off a bad year last year and has historically been a growing and vibrant market. Uptown's growth looks to be fed by the recent bump in sales of condos in the $200K's (not to be confused with softness in this price range for single family homes as discussed above). And, we can be grateful for this, as condo and townhome sales in Uptown at levels over $300K have been only a bit higher than last year overall.

Notice I have not blamed the rainy May for the lower June sales. There is a good reason for this. I don't want the rainy June to result in lower July sales!

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales down 15%, avg price up 7%, DOM 66, up 2%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 6%, avg price up 5%, DOM 73, up 3%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales down 14%, avg price up 11%, DOM 86, up 43%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 12%, avg price up 9%, DOM 101, up 19%.

Highland Park and University Park, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales down 17%, avg price up 15%, DOM 68, up 11%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 4%, avg price up 10%, DOM 70, down 3%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales down 10%, avg price up 17%, DOM 56, down 10%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 4%, avg price up 9%, DOM 63, down 2%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales down 14%, avg price up 20%, DOM 67, up 2%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 9%, avg price up 20%, DOM 70, up 8%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales down 6%, avg price up 12%, DOM 61, up 39%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 1%, avg price unchanged, DOM 57, down 7%.

Northwest Dallas:
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales up 7%, avg price up 11%, DOM 48, down 25%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 12%, avg price up 6%, DOM 62, down 7%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales down 18%, avg price up 12%, DOM 41, down 2%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 1%, avg price up 7%, DOM 53, unchanged.

Plano:
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales down 10%, avg price up 12%, DOM 45, up 7%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 10%, avg price up 4%, DOM 51, up 4%.

Frisco:
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales down 7%, avg price up 4%, DOM 62, up 19%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 5, avg price up 5%, DOM 70, up 13%.

Richardson:
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales up 10%, avg price up 7%, DOM 51, up 13%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 3%, avg price up 4%, DOM 54, down 7%.

Southlake:
Jun 07 vs 06: Sales down 13%, avg price up 6%, DOM 48, down 4%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 11%, avg price up 8%, DOM 72, up 29%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006:

$200-299K (16.2% of sales): down 5%, 7 months inventory
$300-399K (6.7% of sales): up 3%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (3.1% of sales): up 7%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): up 7%, 12 months inventory
$600-699K (1.0% of sales): up 17%, 11 months inventory
$700-799K (0.7% of sales): up 36%, 11 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): up 10, 16 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 6%, 16 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): up 25%, 16 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006.
Some builders do not report their sales in MLS--this list represents MLS reported sales only (as does this entire report).

$200-299K (13.9% of sales): 406 units vs 290 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (7.4% of sales): 215 units vs 194 units year ago, 12 months
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): 83 units vs 90 units year ago, 15 months
$500-599K (1.5% of sales): 44 units vs 34 units year ago, 16 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 22 units vs 15 units year ago, 17 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 8 units vs 13 units year ago, 38 months
$800-899K (0.1% of sales): 3 units vs 2 year ago, 36 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 5 unit vs 4 year ago, 19 months
$1MM + (0.4% of sales): 12 unit vs 8 year ago, 52 months

Bob and Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Associates
214-563-8540

Oh, by the way, if you know someone who is planning to buy or sell a home and would appreciate the service I provide, please send me their name and number, and I will gladly follow up with them!