Bob Edmonson's Dallas TX Property Values Blog: December 2008

November sales were down considerably from year ago levels, by a whopping 33% for Dallas overall. Average sales price was down 7% overall. November sales resulted from contracts made in October, when we were all reeling from the shock of evaporating stock portfolio values. The sheer magnitude of the changes in our lives in the last 60 days commanded more of our attention than did the desire to buy or sell a home. National elections, oil prices falling off the cliff, iconic financial institutions and corporations facing bankruptcy, the formal declaration of recession, job uncertainty, and of course the usual pre-holiday stress made for quite a recipe. The normal rhythms of our lives have new volatility, and we're having to adjust.

The silver lining in all these rapid market changes is mortgage interest rates. Yet, for many, this is a big tease. To take advantage of 30-year fixed rates at or below 5% now, buyers face stiffer requirements--like a job, some savings and good credit. This is as it should be, of course, but the reality is different. For those that do meet these requirements, the winter of 2008-2009 might be remembered as the great window of opportunity to snag historically low-cost mortgage money. Refinancing is keeping all the lenders very busy right now. Washington has its aim on interfering with (excuse me, reviving) the housing market by fixing mortgage rates for new purchases at artificially low rates, according to one rumor, which would indeed have a nice, short term stimulative effect.

In this market though, to buy a house, most need to sell a house. If you are able to trade up, selling a house for not as much as you had hoped and buying a more expensive house for less than you expected will yield a greater percentage return when prices resume their upward march. And that will happen. We won't get into it here, but certainly there are inflationary ramifications of printing all the money we are now dishing out to stabilize the economy. And, what is one of the best hedges against inflation? Real estate.

Looking at the different parts of town, while sales are extremely slow, average sales prices are not all that grim. Average sales prices were up modestly in Uptown/Oak Lawn, Far North Dallas, Northwest Dallas and Frisco. The large jumps in average sales price (Park Cities, North Dallas and Lake Highlands) look a bit suspect to me, and they can probably be explained by the sale of a few whopper properties and/or new construction, which skewed the averages upward.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 33%, avg price down 7%, DOM 80, unchanged.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price down 3%, DOM 81, up 10%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 41%, avg price up 3%, DOM 121, up 3%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price up 10%, DOM 114, up 16%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 40%, avg price up 36%, DOM 114, up 63%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price unchanged, DOM 93, up 39%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 36%, avg price down 13%, DOM 75, up 3%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price down 1%, DOM 76, up 21%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 59%, avg price up 49%, DOM 143, up 64%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price up 5%, DOM 100, up 43%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 36%, avg price up 7%, DOM 78, up 22%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 28%, avg price unchanged, DOM 75, up 36%.

Northwest Dallas:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 25%, avg price up 5%, DOM 77, up 12%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 6%, DOM 76, up 27%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 49%, avg price up 25%, DOM 71, up 54%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price up 3%, DOM 59, up 18%.

Plano:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 43%, avg price down 27%, DOM 66, down 11%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price down 1%, DOM 67, up 24%.

Frisco:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 35%, avg price up 4%, DOM 81, down 13%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 10%, avg price up 2%, DOM 89, up 19%.

Richardson:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price up 10%, DOM 51, down 24%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price down 2%, DOM 63, up 15%.

Southlake:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 53%, avg price up 11%, DOM 132, up 136%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price up 3%, DOM 76, up 9%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (16.0% of sales): down 14%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.5% of sales): down 17%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (2.9% of sales): down 17%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 18%, 13 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 16%, 14 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 18%, 14 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): down 24%, 17 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 20%, 18 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 10%, 20 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.
$200-299K (17.2% of sales): 700 units vs 789 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (7.2% of sales): 293 units vs 413 units year ago, 17 months
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): 115 units vs 140 units year ago, 20 months
$500-599K (1.9% of sales): 78 units vs 78 units year ago, 19 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 32 units vs 35 units year ago, 27 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 9 units vs 16 units year ago, 60 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 14 units vs 8 units year ago, 44 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 9 units vs 12 year ago, 23 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 23 units vs 29 year ago, 63 months
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Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
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Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate