Bob Edmonson's Dallas TX Property Values Blog: October 2009

Dallas saw 6020 single family homes sold in September and 359 condos and townhomes, across all prices points and in all suburbs. Homes are selling, although it may not seem like it, with the press being what it is. We certainly have been subjected to a constant drumbeat of negative housing data, a lot of it on a national scale. But three factors have been working to improve the picture: good values, record low interest rates and a first-time homebuyer tax credit. Prices are flat, with the median sales price across Dallas down 1% through the 3rd quarter, compared to the first 9 months last year. Mortgage interest rates for conventional loans (up to $417,000) were below 5% as of this writing. This is a great combination of factors, creating a great opportunity for buyers in the market. In this most recent month of September, over half the submarkets I track (below) showed GAINS in sales versus the same month a year ago. The other markets with lower sales all showed improvement versus their YTD rate of sales.

In September, the median home sales price for greater Dallas was 2% ABOVE last September. Uptown's median sales price was up 18%, Richardson's up 3%, and North Dallas and Plano had 2% gains in median sales price vs last September, Park Cities and Rockwall up 1%. Maybe we are turning the corner. On the other hand, we know that about 5% of Dallas homes are either in foreclosure or with owners delinquent in their payments. And, we have a tight credit market in the higher end price points. And, still, we have a weak economy. But it looks like we are working our way through it.

The Fed has been cooperating by buying up 80% of the mortgage-backed securites issued by the likes of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Since Fannie and Freddie bought nearly all the new mortgages made this year, the Fed has effectively acquired most of the home loans made in the U.S. That has helped soften the decline in home prices nationwide and sparked a refinancing boom. When the Fed discontinues this program, perhaps in March of next year, mortgage rates will likely begin their move upward. A 1% increase in mortgage rates, say from 5% to 6%, would require roughly a 10% decline in home price to maintain the same monthly payment. Since Dallas area prices have been the most stable of any major metro in the country, there is a chance that the buyer waiting for lower home prices may realize a higher payment when he/she does commit--and it is said we "live in the payment, not the price". An interesting bet!

There were some encouraging signs in our local market in September. Let's build on this momentum!

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price up 2%, DOM 76, down 4%
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 17%, med price down 1%, DOM 80, unchanged.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 11%, med price up 18%, DOM 87, down 37%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 15%, DOM 103, down 7%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price up 1%, DOM 143, up 61%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 34%, med price down 13%, DOM 109, up 17%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 2%, med price down 4%, DOM 81, up 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price down 10%, DOM 76, unchanged.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 17%, med price up 2%, DOM 135, up 41%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 13%, DOM 109, up 12%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price unchanged, DOM 66, up 22%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price unchanged, DOM 70, down 1%.

Northwest Dallas:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 11%, med price down 23%, DOM 82, up 21%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price down 1%, DOM 83, up 11%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 24%, med price down 16%, DOM 82, up 19%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price unchanged, DOM 67, up 16%.

Plano:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price up 2%, DOM 59, down 11%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 4%, DOM 63, down 7%.

Frisco:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 21%, med price down 6%, DOM 69, down 26%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price down 1%, DOM 79, down 11%.

Richardson:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price up 3%, DOM 44, down 27%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price up 1%, DOM 57, down 10%.

Southlake:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales unchanged, med price down 4%, DOM 93, up 11%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 6%, DOM 101, up 40%.

Coppell:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales unchanged, med price down 11%, DOM 29, down 42%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 20%, med price down 7%, DOM 48, down 11%.

Allen:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price down 2%, DOM 68, down 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price down 2%, DOM 74, down 9%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 1%, med price up 1%, DOM 99, up 9%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price down 3%, DOM 92, up 3%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:

$200-299K (16.5% of sales): down 16%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.6% of sales): down 18%, 9 months inventory
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): down 23%, 12 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 18%, 14 months inventory
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): down 32%, 18 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 39%, 20 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 29%, 25 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 26%, 25 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.8% of sales): down 42%, 33 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.

$200-299K (15.7% of sales): 438 units vs 652 units year ago, 14 months inventory
$300-399K (5.9% of sales): 166 units vs 252 units year ago, 20 months
$400-499K (2.2% of sales): 63 units vs 95 units year ago, 32 months
$500-599K (0.8% of sales): 22 units vs 69 units year ago, 62 months
$600-699K (0.5% of sales): 14 units vs 28 units year ago, 52 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 9 units vs 8 units year ago, 62 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 12 units vs 13 units year ago, 28 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 3 units vs 9 year ago, 99 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 17 units vs 19 year ago, 65 months

Bob and Knoxie Edmonson


Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
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Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate