Bob Edmonson's Dallas TX Property Values Blog: May 2009

As I write this on the eve of Memorial Day, I hope yours is enjoyable and meaningful. Yes, I am a little later than usual with my report this month, but that is due in part to a pretty busy May. After a lackluster start to the spring selling season, I am looking forward to seeing what May brings, statistically speaking. Ever hopeful, we Realtors like to conjure up scenarios, such as, "Wouldn't it be great if the spring season was really three months late getting started this year?" I hope I don't have to eat my words, but I have a hunch May will look much better than the preceding four months. But, this is about April, and a quick scan of the submarkets' performance last month looks a lot like February and March. Sales volume is still way down from year ago levels. City-wide, median sales prices are down just 4% year to date, which, as you have read in the papers, places Dallas at the top of the national list of cities for resiliency. We are hanging tough with value, thanks to an economy with the fewest job losses in the country. We seem to be riding out the recession well enough, and some buyers are recognizing the opportunity of favorable interest rates and motivated sellers to move forward with their home purchases. Sellers today also realize that while they may take a bit of a haircut on the sale of their home, they should be able to make it up on the purchase of the new home.

In the single family home market, sales in each price bracket over $200,000 are off somewhat uniformly from their year-ago levels. See the chart below. This runs counter to the current theory that the higher-priced homes requiring jumbo financing (>$417,000 borrowed) were responsible for dragging the numbers down. Jumbo loans are about 17% more expensive than conventional loans (6% vs 5%), but sales are down across the board by double digits. In the condo and townhome market, though, there is a marked difference when price comes into play. Sales of these property types over $500,000 are quite anemic. Just 7 sales all year in the $500's and only 18 sales all year at any price above $500K--in all of Dallas! This hits home with me, as I have 7 units remaining in a terrific 8-unit townhome project in the State Thomas Historical District (Uptown) priced in the $500's which are looking for a few good owners.

Overall, we have a little over 8 month's supply of homes in all price brackets city-wide, a little higher than the 6-month rule of thumb for a healthy market. Not too bad, but supported by the entry level home market. And the Far North Dallas, Lake Highlands, and Northwest Dallas areas have recorded median price increases through the first four months of the year--excellent progress. Now, I am looking forward to the May numbers. I have a feeling we'll see improvement!

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 4%, DOM 79, down 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 4%, DOM 85, down 1%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price down 20%, DOM 104, up 7%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 31%, med price down 20%, DOM 106, down 6%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 50%, med price up 3%, DOM 108, up 38%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 48%, med price down 4%, DOM 114, up 24%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 11%, med price down 14%, DOM 78, up 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 23%, DOM 79, down 2%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 17%, med price down 5%, DOM 86, up 21%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 16%, DOM 111, up 21%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 11%, DOM 62, down 27%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 16%, med price up 1%, DOM 82, up 2%.

Northwest Dallas:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price down 8%, DOM 81, up 17%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price up 2%, DOM 94, up 8%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price down 11%, DOM 58, up 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price up 2%, DOM 66, up 2%.

Plano:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 32%, med price down 9%, DOM 63, unchanged..
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 32%, med price down 7%, DOM 70, down 7%.

Frisco:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 11%, med price down 2%, DOM 81, down 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price unchanged, DOM 88, down 10%.

Richardson:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 52%, med price down 8%, DOM 59, down 3%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 31%, med price down 3%, DOM 72, up 6%.

Southlake:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 34%, med price down 12%, DOM 120, up 64%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price down 7%, DOM 97, up 33%.

Coppell:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price down 24%, DOM 45, down 10%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 25%, med price down 12%, DOM 52, down 13%.

Allen:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price down 14%, DOM 81, up 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 26%, med price down 7%, DOM 90, down 1%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price down 6%, DOM 78, down 9%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 20%, med price down 8%, DOM 89, down 4%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:
$200-299K (14.7% of sales): down 27%, 11 months inventory
$300-399K (5.9% of sales): down 30%, 14 months inventory
$400-499K (2.6% of sales): down 33%, 18 months inventory
$500-599K (1.1% of sales): down 35%, 25 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): down 30%, 29 months inventory
$700-799K (0.4% of sales): down 41%, 32 months inventory
$800-899K (0.2% of sales): down 33%, 37 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 37%, 42 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.7% of sales): down 45%, 49 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.
$200-299K (16.0% of sales): 147 units vs 276 units year ago, 20 months inventory
$300-399K (6.0% of sales): 55 units vs 96 units year ago, 32 months
$400-499K (2.9% of sales): 27 units vs 33 units year ago, 37 months
$500-599K (0.8% of sales): 7 unit vs 33 units year ago, 97 months
$600-699K (0.2% of sales): 2 units vs 12 units year ago, 174 months
$700-799K (0.1% of sales): 1 units vs 4 units year ago, 220 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 3 unit vs 4 units year ago, 65 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 2 unit vs 4 year ago, 54 months
$1MM + (0.3% of sales): 3 unit vs 7 year ago, 177 months

Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.dallastexashomefinder.com/
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Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate