Bob Edmonson's Dallas TX Property Values Blog: March 2011

Remember February? Seems like a long time ago! March data will be out soon--sorry for the delay getting this report to you. February sales data is the latest we have at this date, and home sales for this month were down 17% from year ago levels, resulting in a 2-months year-to-date figure of home sales down 13%. The median price of those homes sold was up 4% in February and now up 5% for the year. The homes sold thusfar in 2011 are higher-priced than those that sold this time last year. And this is a good sign.

I like to look at the breakdown of sales and prices by area each month, as the "overall Dallas" number never tells the whole story. As is the case every month, there are parts of town that are not selling all that well right now, and some areas that are exceeding last year's sales numbers. It's always interesting but not easy to pin down the reasons for such wide disparities. What is important to know is that fully 69% of all Dallas area sales are below $200,000. Sales of homes in this category were down in the 20%+ double digits range, which negatively weights the overall sales picture for the metro area. Homes sellling for more than $200,000, the other 31% of the market, showed sales increases in the $300's (+8%), in the $500's (+17%), in the $600's (+18%), in the $700's (+29%), in the $900's (+54%) and in the million plus category (+2%). The condo/townhome market sales by price category over $200,000 is even with last year at this time.

Looking at the different areas around town illustrates how real estate is truly "local". Markets off to a fast start this year include Coppell (+35%), Uptown (+26%), Frisco (+16%) and Park Cities (+10%). East Dallas and North Dallas are off to very slow starts, compared to the same time a year ago. Wish I knew why! We'll see what the pattern looks like when the March data arrives. It does reinforce the point that broad-brushing an entire city with a single headline, whether it be Dallas or any other place, is almost always misleading.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales down 17%, med price up 4%, DOM 96, up 22%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 13%, med price up 5%, DOM 97, up 20%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales up 20%, med price up 21%, DOM 168, up 70%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 26%, med price down 8%, DOM 153, up 55%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales up 19%, med price down 26%, DOM 104, down 10%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 10%, med price down 3%, DOM 115, down 10%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales down 26%, med price down 15%, DOM 99, up 22%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 19%, med price up 7%, DOM 106, up 43%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales down 3%, med price down 10%, DOM 205, up 42%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 16%, med price down 2%, DOM 169, up 33%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales up 11%, med price up 4%, DOM 88, down 11%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 9%, med price down 1%, DOM 87, down 13%.

Northwest Dallas:

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales down 6%, med price up 21%, DOM 98, up 17%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 9%, med price up 15%, DOM 95, up 9%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales down 31%, med price down 13%, DOM 84, up 45%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 10%, med price up 7%, DOM 97, up 31%.

Plano:

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales down 18%, med price up 2%, DOM 84, up 22%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 8%, med price down 1%, DOM 89, up 25%.

Frisco:

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales up 19%, med price up 6%, DOM 92, up 37%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 16%, med price unchanged, DOM 95, up 30%.

Richardson:

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales up 12%, med price up 1%, DOM 81, up 72%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 6%, med price down 3%, DOM 80, up 70%.

Southlake:

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales up 7%, med price up 9%, DOM 96, down 28%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 29%, med price down 9%, DOM 102, down 19%.

Coppell:

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales down 4%, med price down 12%, DOM 84, up 45%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 35%, med price down 3%, DOM 93, up 75%.

Allen:

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales down 15%, med price up 10%, DOM 105, up 38%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 9%, med price up 2%, DOM 92, up 26%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):

Feb 11 vs 10: Sales up 11%, med price down 8%, DOM 129, up 47%.

YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 4%, med price unchanged, DOM 119, up 31%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2011 vs 2010:

$200-299K (16.2% of sales): down 5%, 11 months inventory

$300-399K (7.3% of sales): up 8%, 13 months inventory

$400-499K (2.5% of sales): down 9%, 18 months inventory

$500-599K (1.6% of sales): up 17%, 17 months inventory

$600-699K (1.0% of sales): up 18%, 19 months inventory

$700-799K (0.7% of sales): up 29%, 17 months inventory

$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 13%, 27 months inventory

$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 54%, 25 months inventory

$1MM and up (0.9% of sales): up 2%, 32 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2011 vs 2010.

$200-299K (10.5% of sales): 46 units vs 50 units year ago, 22 months inventory

$300-399K (6.9% of sales): 30 units vs 20 units year ago, 18 months

$400-499K (2.5% of sales): 11 units vs 13 units year ago, 24 months

$500-599K (0.9% of sales): 4 units vs 3 units year ago, 48 months

$600-699K (0.9% of sales): 4 units vs 4 units year ago, 18 months

$700-799K (0.7% of sales): 3 units vs 3 units year ago, 13 months

$800-899K (0.5% of sales): 2 units vs 2 units year ago, 18 months

$900-999K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 0 units year ago, n/a months

$1MM + (1.4% of sales): 6 units vs 6 units year ago, 22 months

Bob and Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Associates
(214)563-8540

Dallas TX Homefinder Website Dallas TX Home Values Blog --- Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate, Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

January home sales were down 11% from year ago, recording a total of 3073 single family sales and 194 condo and townhome sales. Historically the slowest month of the year for home sales, this January was not too different from past years. The overall median sales price was up 8% from year ago, a healthy sign for our market, and slightly ahead of December's 7% increase. January is usually slower as many home buyers try to close by year end to capture the homestead tax exemption, available in most cities and school districts, and only available for the coming year to those who occupy their new homes on December 31st.

But some cities surprise. As is typically the case, different parts of the area report widely different sales results. This month, Coppell saw more than a doubling of home sales, up 123% from last January. This represented 29 home sales vs 13 a year ago. The Uptown/Oak Lawn area saw a 38% increase in sales, Northwest Dallas a 14% increase and Park Cities a 7% increase. On the flip side, Southlake sales were off 47%, North Dallas off 32% and Richardson off 28%. I wish I had an explanation! One month doesn't make a trend, of course, and often the sales are skewed because closings, many of which are scheduled at the end of the month, can be delayed into the next month for a variety of reasons, usually financing.

It was also interesting to note the large gains in median sales price of homes sold in East Dallas (+61%), Northwest Dallas (+42%) and North Dallas (+13%). A reminder again for my new readers...this does not translate well to price appreciation. This means that more homes with higher sales tags sold this month than sold the same month last year.

As we go forward, the economic indicators are more positive at this time compared to early 2010, which bodes well for the housing industry. Lending requirements, while still quite stringent, are not as onerous as last year. More financial institutions are creating more loans and finding ways with different loan products to do business. Rates seem to have flattened out after a run-up in late fall (see graph) at around 5% for a 30-year fixed conventional mortgage. These rates are still historically low, as illustrated on this chart provided by Shelter Mortgage (you may have to rotate it). The possible phasing out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which has recently been proposed and supported by Congress and the White House, would happen over a period of time, so as to not upset the mortgage market significantly. Interest rates are still a huge wild card in the housing business, and the facinating thing is that no one has any idea where they will wind up this year.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales down 11%, med price up 8%, DOM 98, up 18%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 11%, med price up 8%, DOM 98, up 18%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales up 38%, med price down 3%, DOM 98, up 31%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 38%, med price down 3%, DOM 98, up 31%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales up 7%, med price up 11%, DOM 120, down 17%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 7%, med price up 11%, DOM 120, down 17%

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales down 7%, med price up 61%, DOM 113, up 74%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 7%, med price up 61%, DOM 113, down 74%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales down 32%, med price up 13%, DOM 92, down 14%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 32%, med price up 13%, DOM 92, down 14%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales up 3%, med price unchanged, DOM 90, down 11%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 3%, med price unchanged, DOM 90, down 11%.

Northwest Dallas:
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales down 9%, med price down 9%, DOM 95, up 4%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 9%, med price down 9%, DOM 95, down 4%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales up 14%, med price up 42%, DOM 110, up 13%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 14%, med price up 42%, DOM 110, up 13%.

Plano:
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales up 3%, med price down 2%, DOM 95, up 27%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 3%, med price down 2%, DOM 95, up 27%.

Frisco:
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales up 5%, med price down 6%, DOM 95, up 16%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 5%, med price down 6%, DOM 95, up 16%.

Richardson:
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales down 28%, med price down 13%, DOM 69, up 47%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 28%, med price down 13%, DOM 69, up 47%.

Southlake:
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales down 47%, med price down 15%, DOM 98, down 20%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 47%, med price down 15%, DOM 98, down 20%.

Coppell:
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales up 123%, med price up 1%, DOM 99, up 130%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 123%, med price up 1%, DOM 99, up 130%.

Allen:
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales up 2%, med price up 1%, DOM 73, up 6%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 2%, med price up 1%, DOM 73, up 6%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Jan 11 vs 10: Sales down 13%, med price up 11%, DOM 109, up 16%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 13%, med price up 11%, DOM 109, up 16%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2011 vs 2010:

$200-299K (15.6% of sales): unchanged, 12 months inventory

$300-399K (7.3% of sales): up 9%, 13 months inventory

$400-499K (2.9% of sales): unchanged, 17 months inventory

$500-599K (1.5% of sales): uuchanged, 18 months inventory

$600-699K (1.0% of sales): unchanged, 19 months inventory

$700-799K (0.7% of sales): up 17%, 18 months inventory

$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 20%, 33 months inventory

$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 60%, 29 months inventory

$1MM and up (0.7% of sales): down 22%, 45 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2011 vs 2010.

$200-299K (9.3% of sales): 18 units vs 24 units year ago, 30 months inventory

$300-399K (5.7% of sales): 11 units vs 3 units year ago, 22 months

$400-499K (1.5% of sales): 3 units vs 7 units year ago, 48 months

$500-599K (1.5% of sales): 3 units vs 1 unit year ago, 30 months

$600-699K (0.5% of sales): 1 unit vs 3 units year ago, 34 months

$700-799K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 0 units year ago, n/a months

$800-899K (0.5% of sales): 1 unit vs 1 unit year ago, 19 months

$900-999K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 0 units year ago, n/a months

$1MM + (2.1% of sales): 4 units vs 1 unit year ago, 16 months

Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Associates
(214)563-8540
Dallas TX Homefinder Website Dallas TX Home Values Blog --- Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate, Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate